Difference between revisions of "Transition probabilities from selected texts"

Revision as of 05:45, 8 June 2009

The Somerton Man's code (without the extra line) is 44 characters long. So, if the text is purely random (1/26 chance of each letter appearing) then the probability of attaining this particular string of 44 is (1/26)^44 = 5.51027E-63. This is a good initial comparison.

First Order Transition Probabilities

English (1984 - George Orwell)
Markov Probability: 1.4641414719132793E-67
Corrected Zeroes: 1

French (Les Orientales - Victor Hugo)
Markov Probability: 1.1571661202766258E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 2

Vigenere Cipher (1984 - George Orwell, Keyword LEMON)
Markov Probability: 1.646391769425068E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0

German (Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud)
Note: does not account for Eszett (sharp s) character
Markov Probability: 3.8662593620911806E-73
Corrected Zeroes: 1

English Initial Letters (1984 - George Orwell)
Markov Probability: 1.9187432339606176E-56
Corrected Zeroes: 0

French Initial Letters (Les Orientales - Victor Hugo)
counting words like l'hopital as two words (le followed by hopital):
Markov Probability: 7.809561685705767E-61
Corrected Zeroes: 0
discounting the l' (only consider the hopital)
Markov Probability: 1.1841007473332175E-60
Corrected Zeroes: 0

German Initial Letters (Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud)
Note: does not account for Eszett (sharp s) character. Though I don't think a word can ever start with this character
Markov Probability: 4.29592233581315E-64
Corrected Zeroes: 1

Second Order Transition Probabilies

English (1984 - George Orwell)
Markov Probability: 2.115089006082431E-43
Corrected Zeroes: 14

German (Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud)
Note: does not account for Eszett (sharp s) character
Markov Probability: 3.79644909538402E-35
Corrected Zeroes: 21

French (Les Orientales - Victor Hugo)
Markov Probability: 4.429249667204738E-34
Corrected Zeroes: 18

Vigenere (English - 1984 - Orwell)
Markov Probability: 1.6699440985106574E-60
Corrected Zeroes: 8

English Initial Letters (1984 - George Orwell)
Markov Probability: 7.009981410871232E-53
Corrected Zeroes: 2

German Initial Letters (Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud)
Note: does not account for Eszett (sharp s) character
Markov Probability: 2.908650572588623E-32
Corrected Zeroes: 17

Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt
Not counting l' as a word (but counting the word contracted with it):
Markov Probability: 1.0762921500526206E-40
Corrected Zeroes: 12
Counting the l' as one word and the other contracted word as another word:
Markov Probability: 2.970787716759867E-41
Corrected Zeroes: 12

See also

• Cipher Cracking 2009
• Markov models