Difference between revisions of "Transition probabilities from selected texts"

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(Updated texts. More languages)
(More languages and wider variety of texts for existing languages)
 
Line 26: Line 26:
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.0705524720748866E-82
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.7633169297716054E-83
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    1
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    1
−
<br/>HMMER Score:        -64.52874041851341
+
<br/>HMMER Score:        -68.08239247668342
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Line 34: Line 34:
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    9
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    9
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -97.26506645809364
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -97.26506645809364
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.0172950778991843E-77
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    1
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -48.94437749826932
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.139309827314818E-84
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    1
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -71.12546693519374
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.7024882053115854E-77
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    2
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -46.735691382905166
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Line 39: Line 54:
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -24.99631136880728
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -24.99631136880728
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 5.213910076344393E-69
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -20.01132524791302
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
===Initial letters===
 
===Initial letters===
Line 57: Line 77:
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 8.969553991898917E-65
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 3.204888821639082E-63
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
−
<br/>HMMER Score:        -5.940942320075476
+
<br/>HMMER Score:        -0.7818480694202504
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Line 65: Line 85:
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        13.431992337096512
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        13.431992337096512
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.2658166834014361E-60
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        8.683693049158332
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 6.9654365323502316E-68
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    1
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -16.27154908302583
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.6806903224847996E-64
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    2
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -4.361445908011734
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
==Second order==
 
==Second order==
Line 84: Line 119:
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.4983480586257613E-101
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 3.342953425806875E-98
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    12
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    11
−
<br/>HMMER Score:        -127.37441550467722
+
<br/>HMMER Score:        -116.98848244535708
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Line 92: Line 127:
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    21
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    21
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -175.9194661728711
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -175.9194661728711
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.2738731323579313E-94
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    13
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -103.34634923820269
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 5.327306011536052E-112
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    17
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -162.82319287449383
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.1823873333660746E-91
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    10
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -95.23440631711085
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Line 97: Line 147:
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    8
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    8
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -98.05823732223358
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        -98.05823732223358
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 7.389612924665265E-86
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    6
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -75.98096976556741
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
===Initial letters===
 
===Initial letters===
Line 115: Line 170:
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 3.8251249716620213E-81
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 8.869612541473453E-71
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    7
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    3
−
<br/>HMMER Score:        -60.32132120442464
+
<br/>HMMER Score:        -25.888676055317255
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Line 123: Line 178:
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    0
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        17.600375336401736
 
<br/>HMMER Score:        17.600375336401736
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 9.986807259493189E-70
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    4
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -22.395595515749598
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.9749729570078271E-69
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    2
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -21.41185805018986
 +
<br/>
 +
<br/>(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters
 +
<br/>Markov Probability: 9.55816081723446E-69
 +
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:    4
 +
<br/>HMMER Score:        -19.13695790770939
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
  

Latest revision as of 16:48, 2 October 2009

The Somerton Man's code (without the extra line) is 44 characters long. So, if the text is purely random (1/26 chance of each letter appearing) then the probability of attaining this particular string of 44 is (1/26)^44 = 5.51027E-63. This is a good initial comparison.

For transitions that have p=0, corrections to p=0.0001 have been performed to attain a non-zero Markov probability.

HMMER score[1] is the log (base 2) of Markov probability / null probability (1/26^44)

First order

All letters


(..\Texts\English.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.196215910162246E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -23.646530132315654

(..\Texts\French.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.562440416695874E-74
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -36.8135257053655

(..\Texts\German.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.6093650169064557E-82
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -64.89226460456342

(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.7633169297716054E-83
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -68.08239247668342

(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.8938109466376915E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -97.26506645809364

(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0172950778991843E-77
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -48.94437749826932

(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.139309827314818E-84
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -71.12546693519374

(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.7024882053115854E-77
Corrected Zeroes: 2
HMMER Score: -46.735691382905166

(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.646391769425068E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -24.99631136880728

(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters
Markov Probability: 5.213910076344393E-69
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -20.01132524791302

Initial letters


(..\Texts\English.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 5.755746003335865E-56
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 23.316377212971148

(..\Texts\French.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.960919656262944E-61
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 5.153264236029422

(..\Texts\German.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 7.441017498436695E-73
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -32.78590341697

(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 3.204888821639082E-63
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -0.7818480694202504

(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 6.089831612262369E-59
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 13.431992337096512

(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 2.2658166834014361E-60
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 8.683693049158332

(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 6.9654365323502316E-68
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -16.27154908302583

(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 2.6806903224847996E-64
Corrected Zeroes: 2
HMMER Score: -4.361445908011734

Second order

All letters


(..\Texts\English.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.2148901763982914E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -96.72254209077907

(..\Texts\French.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.9814441750241465E-90
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -91.16762862009702

(..\Texts\German.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 5.919358467581905E-105
Corrected Zeroes: 14
HMMER Score: -139.41766153806188

(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 3.342953425806875E-98
Corrected Zeroes: 11
HMMER Score: -116.98848244535708

(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 6.083262400057097E-116
Corrected Zeroes: 21
HMMER Score: -175.9194661728711

(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.2738731323579313E-94
Corrected Zeroes: 13
HMMER Score: -103.34634923820269

(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 5.327306011536052E-112
Corrected Zeroes: 17
HMMER Score: -162.82319287449383

(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.1823873333660746E-91
Corrected Zeroes: 10
HMMER Score: -95.23440631711085

(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.669944098510842E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 8
HMMER Score: -98.05823732223358

(Outputs\Playfair.out) All Letters
Markov Probability: 7.389612924665265E-86
Corrected Zeroes: 6
HMMER Score: -75.98096976556741

Initial letters


(..\Texts\English.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0496288884966237E-55
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 24.18318171171002

(..\Texts\French.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 8.83846402382603E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -22.571823368605646

(..\Texts\German.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.6757717490935368E-89
Corrected Zeroes: 10
HMMER Score: -88.08742718870606

(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 8.869612541473453E-71
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -25.888676055317255

(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0949986922100798E-57
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 17.600375336401736

(..\Texts\Portuguese.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 9.986807259493189E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 4
HMMER Score: -22.395595515749598

(..\Texts\Dutch.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.9749729570078271E-69
Corrected Zeroes: 2
HMMER Score: -21.41185805018986

(..\Texts\Swedish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 9.55816081723446E-69
Corrected Zeroes: 4
HMMER Score: -19.13695790770939


References

  1. ↑ ftp://selab.janelia.org/pub/software/hmmer/CURRENT/Userguide.pdf Page 43

See also

Back

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