Difference between revisions of "Transition probabilities from selected texts"

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===All letters===
 
===All letters===
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.4641414719133752E-71
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.4641414719132942E-71
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   1
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   1
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -28.487492178774602
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.1571661202766416E-78
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.1571661202766167E-78
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   2
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   2
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -52.08044781349958
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 3.866259362091006E-77
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 3.866259362091221E-77
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   1
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   1
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -47.018177286334875
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.6463917694250256E-70
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.646391769425068E-70
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   0
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   0
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -24.99631136880728
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
===Initial letters===
 
===Initial letters===
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.9187432339606235E-56
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.9187432339606176E-56
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   0
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   0
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        21.731535947650737
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 7.809561685705419E-61
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 7.809561685705767E-61
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   0
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   0
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        7.14697538897068
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.553994899282498E-68
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.553994899282612E-68
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   1
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   1
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -16.88463017855261
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
==Second order==
 
==Second order==
 
===All letters===
 
===All letters===
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.1150890060822598E-99
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.115089006082555E-99
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   14
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   14
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -120.970815420271
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.429249667204522E-106
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 4.429249667205306E-106
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   18
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   18
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -143.15796813874405
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 3.796449095383427E-119
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 3.796449095384246E-119
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   21
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   21
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -186.56544502943777
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
 
<br/>(Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.6699440985106455E-92
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 1.669944098510842E-92
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   8
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   8
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -98.05823732223358
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
===Initial letters===
 
===Initial letters===
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(1984 - George Orwell.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 7.009981410871061E-61
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 7.009981410871375E-61
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   2
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   2
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        6.991144428568879
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.9707877167600856E-89
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.9707877167599384E-89
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   12
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   12
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -87.26140732840628
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) Initial Letters
 
<br/>(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) Initial Letters
−
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.9078792518321384E-100
+
<br/>Markov Probability: 2.9078792518323414E-100
−
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   17
+
<br/>Corrected Zeroes:   17
 +
<br/>Hmmer Score:        -123.83349452718522
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
 +
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==

Revision as of 18:07, 15 June 2009

The Somerton Man's code (without the extra line) is 44 characters long. So, if the text is purely random (1/26 chance of each letter appearing) then the probability of attaining this particular string of 44 is (1/26)^44 = 5.51027E-63. This is a good initial comparison.

For transitions that have p=0, corrections to p=0.0001 have been performed to attain a non-zero Markov probability.

First order

All letters


(1984 - George Orwell.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.4641414719132942E-71
Corrected Zeroes: 1
Hmmer Score: -28.487492178774602

(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.1571661202766167E-78
Corrected Zeroes: 2
Hmmer Score: -52.08044781349958

(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 3.866259362091221E-77
Corrected Zeroes: 1
Hmmer Score: -47.018177286334875

(Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.646391769425068E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0
Hmmer Score: -24.99631136880728

Initial letters


(1984 - George Orwell.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.9187432339606176E-56
Corrected Zeroes: 0
Hmmer Score: 21.731535947650737

(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 7.809561685705767E-61
Corrected Zeroes: 0
Hmmer Score: 7.14697538897068

(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 4.553994899282612E-68
Corrected Zeroes: 1
Hmmer Score: -16.88463017855261

Second order

All letters


(1984 - George Orwell.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.115089006082555E-99
Corrected Zeroes: 14
Hmmer Score: -120.970815420271

(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.429249667205306E-106
Corrected Zeroes: 18
Hmmer Score: -143.15796813874405

(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 3.796449095384246E-119
Corrected Zeroes: 21
Hmmer Score: -186.56544502943777

(Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.669944098510842E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 8
Hmmer Score: -98.05823732223358

Initial letters


(1984 - George Orwell.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 7.009981410871375E-61
Corrected Zeroes: 2
Hmmer Score: 6.991144428568879

(Les Orientales - Victor Hugo.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 2.9707877167599384E-89
Corrected Zeroes: 12
Hmmer Score: -87.26140732840628

(Traumdeutung - Sigmund Freud.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 2.9078792518323414E-100
Corrected Zeroes: 17
Hmmer Score: -123.83349452718522


See also

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