Transition probabilities from selected texts
The Somerton Man's code (without the extra line) is 44 characters long. So, if the text is purely random (1/26 chance of each letter appearing) then the probability of attaining this particular string of 44 is (1/26)^44 = 5.51027E-63. This is a good initial comparison.
For transitions that have p=0, corrections to p=0.0001 have been performed to attain a non-zero Markov probability.
HMMER score[1] is the log (base 2) of Markov probability / null probability (1/26^44)
Contents
First order
All letters
(..\Texts\English.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.196215910162246E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -23.646530132315654
(..\Texts\French.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.562440416695874E-74
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -36.8135257053655
(..\Texts\German.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.6093650169064557E-82
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -64.89226460456342
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.0705524720748866E-82
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -64.52874041851341
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.8938109466376915E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -97.26506645809364
(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.646391769425068E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -24.99631136880728
Initial letters
(..\Texts\English.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 5.755746003335865E-56
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 23.316377212971148
(..\Texts\French.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.960919656262944E-61
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 5.153264236029422
(..\Texts\German.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 7.441017498436695E-73
Corrected Zeroes: 1
HMMER Score: -32.78590341697
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 8.969553991898917E-65
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: -5.940942320075476
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 6.089831612262369E-59
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 13.431992337096512
Second order
All letters
(..\Texts\English.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 4.2148901763982914E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -96.72254209077907
(..\Texts\French.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.9814441750241465E-90
Corrected Zeroes: 9
HMMER Score: -91.16762862009702
(..\Texts\German.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 5.919358467581905E-105
Corrected Zeroes: 14
HMMER Score: -139.41766153806188
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 2.4983480586257613E-101
Corrected Zeroes: 12
HMMER Score: -127.37441550467722
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 6.083262400057097E-116
Corrected Zeroes: 21
HMMER Score: -175.9194661728711
(..\Texts\Vigenere - 1984.txt) All Letters
Markov Probability: 1.669944098510842E-92
Corrected Zeroes: 8
HMMER Score: -98.05823732223358
Initial letters
(..\Texts\English.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0496288884966237E-55
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 24.18318171171002
(..\Texts\French.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 8.83846402382603E-70
Corrected Zeroes: 3
HMMER Score: -22.571823368605646
(..\Texts\German.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.6757717490935368E-89
Corrected Zeroes: 10
HMMER Score: -88.08742718870606
(..\Texts\Spanish.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 3.8251249716620213E-81
Corrected Zeroes: 7
HMMER Score: -60.32132120442464
(..\Texts\Italian.txt) Initial Letters
Markov Probability: 1.0949986922100798E-57
Corrected Zeroes: 0
HMMER Score: 17.600375336401736
